Election boxing: Tory leadership candidates clash

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

July 2022 has become the month of unexpected plebiscites. First there’s the jaw-dropping: Britain’s ruling Conservative Party allowed a vote of confidence in itself on Monday. This ‘side show’, as the FT parliamentary team dubbed it last week, which is sure to be won by the ruling party, is best seen as an effort to instill unity among Tory MPs after the implosion tumultuous Prime Ministerial post of Boris Johnson.

Which brings us to ‘Super Monday’, a series of scrambles and another vote to further whittle the field of Tory MP hopefuls seeking to be the new leader – and therefore prime minister – after this weekend’s televised debates . You can follow the events via this FT page.

Once they reach the final pair, expected on Wednesday before the summer parliamentary recess, the party’s national members will secure the final vote, allowing a new leader to be in place by September 5. Get ready for a summer of good humor and media appearances, and no doubt leaks and libel stories, from the two rival sides in what has already been a highly competitive contest.

In Sri Lanka, parliamentarians will elect a new president on Wednesday to replace Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled the country after protesters stormed his palace before stepping down last week. Whether that will assuage anger over food shortages and runaway inflation remains to be seen.

There is an election scheduled for this week. India’s parliament will decide the country’s new president. The winner – due to be announced on Wednesday – is expected to be veteran politician Draupadi Murmu as she enjoys the backing of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party. But maybe that will be another unexpected election story.

Back in the UK, and back to the regular diary of July events, Nadhim Zahawi will address city dignitaries with the Chancellor’s Mansion House annual address. Zahawi has only been chancellor for a few days and may not be long in his role once his party’s new leader is chosen, but he is expected to grab headlines as he unveils a relaxation of city regulations for facilitate and accelerate fundraising by companies. money in the Square Mile.

Speaking of expected things, the British summer of discontent hangs in the air like the country’s sweltering temperatures. Lawyers, postal managers and brewery workers are all planning walkouts this week.

Finally, there will be the return of an event that hasn’t happened “in person” since the 2020 pandemic shutdowns: the Farnborough Airshow. Exceptionally, for an international gathering of aerospace executives, the organizers decided to announce the return of the event on the side of a bus. Hopefully that doesn’t mean the overhead screens will instead be that very British transport solution, the replacement bus service.

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Economic data

The two i’s — inflation and interest rates — will be back in the public eye, with attention focused on the meeting of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy committee.

The week will end with another adjustment of international comparators with the PMI data reports.

Companies

We are in the thick of the current earnings season with the rest of the great American banking pack, as well as an assortment of technology, media, automotive and healthcare companies.

Also, Monday, share Haleon are set to begin trading on the London Stock Exchange, completing the spin-off of consumer healthcare companies from GSK, with the parent company’s blessing. Haleon, whose brands will include Sensodyne toothpaste and painkillers Advil and Panadol, is expected to seek a valuation of up to £45bn.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • Italy, trade balance figures for May

  • London-based tech start-up Nothing launches its smartphone, Phone (1)

  • Spain, trade balance figures for May

  • UK, Rightmove Monthly House Price Index, plus Michael Saunders, external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, to speak at the Resolution Foundation.

  • United States, real estate market index

  • Results: Bank of America Q2, Charles Schwab Q2, Goldman Sachs Q2, IBM Q2, Nordea Bank H1

Tuesday

  • EU, final June inflation figures and European Central Bank release its survey of eurozone bank lending in the second quarter

  • United Kingdom, June labor market statistics

  • Results: BHP Billiton operational balance sheet, Halliburton Q2, Hasbro Q2, Johnson & Johnson Q2, Lockheed Martin Q2, netflix Q2, Novartis H1, Swedbank Q2, Telenor Q2, Volvo cars Q2

Wednesday

  • Canada, June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

  • China, central bank interest rate decision

  • EU, consumer confidence flash figures

  • Germany, June Producer Price Index (PPI) data

  • United Kingdom, June CPI and PPI data

  • Results: Akzo Nobel Q2, Alcoa Q2, ASML Q2, Kone H1, You’re here Q2

Thursday

  • EU and ECB monetary policy committee takes decision on interest rates

  • Japan, monetary policy committee decision on interest rates and trade balance figures

  • South Africa, monetary policy committee meeting to decide on repo rate

  • UK, June public sector finance data, plus Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill delivers keynote speech at Joint Bank of England Conference, King’s College of London and the European Central Bank “Advanced Analysis: New Methods and Applications for Macroeconomic Policy”.

  • Results: ABB Q2, American airlines Q2, Anglo-American Q2 production report, AT&T Q2, Capital one Q2, close brothers Fourth Quarter Business Update, Electrolux Q2, Get the link H1, Mattel Q2, nokia Q2, ocado H1, Philip Morris Q2, Publicis Group H1, Qinetiq Q1 Commercial Update, SAP H1, Skanska H1, Instantaneous Q1, Union Pacific Q2

Friday

  • Canada, monthly retail trade figures

  • EU and ECB quarterly survey of economic forecasters

  • Eurozone, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States: IHS Markit/S&P Global Flash Composite Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) data

  • Japan, June CPI data

  • Russia, Bank of Russia rate review meeting

  • UK, June Retail Sales Figures and GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

  • Results: American Express Q2, Beazley H1, Danske Bank Q2, Money supermarket H1, Schindler Group H1, Schlumberger Q2, Verizon Q2

Global Events

Finally, here’s a look at some of the other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

  • Austria, the Salzburg Festival begins

  • India, indirect election of the president by the elected representatives of the two houses of parliament, the elected representatives of the 29 states and the elected representatives of the union territories of Delhi and Pondicherry

  • UK, widespread industrial action on wages continues. Criminal lawyers in England and Wales will strike for a fifth straight week over legal aid funding. Hundreds of Unite union members employed as bus drivers and engineers based at Stagecoach’s Gillmoss depot will also come out. Separately, 2,400 Unite members within Royal Mail management will hold two sets of industrial action in a dispute over job cuts and wages, working to rule today and tomorrow, followed by a Wednesday-Friday strike.

  • UK, Farnborough Airshow, the annual gathering of the global aerospace industry, returns to the UK for the first time in four years

  • UK, Swan Upping, the annual census of this waterfowl population on certain stretches of the River Thames.

  • In the UK, the long legal battle between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó over control of more than $1.9 billion in gold held by the Bank of England will resume before the High London Court. The hearing will focus on whether the court will recognize the judgments of the Supreme Court of Justice of Venezuela.

  • In the UK, Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey speak at the Mansion House City banquet for financial and professional services executives. In addition, the results of a ballot by workers from the Union of Communication Workers at the Royal Mail on pay are due to be announced and hundreds of employees at the Budweiser Brewing Group’s Lancashire site are coming out to second time in four days with a 12 hour stop.

Wednesday

  • Colombia, national day to celebrate independence

  • Sri Lanka, election of a new president after Gotabaya Rajapaksa agreed to step down, with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, after protesters angry at rising prices and food shortages stormed the residences of the two men last week.

  • United Kingdom, the last round of voting is expected for the election for the leadership of the Conservative Party

  • In the United States, Space Exploration Day commemorates the date astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed on the moon in 1969. It comes one day before the 11th anniversary of the last successful mission of the space shuttle STS -135, when Atlantis landed at Kennedy Space Center after 30 years of space shuttle flights.

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

  • Egypt national day holiday

  • The annual World Board Game Championships in the United States begins at Seven Springs Mountain Resort, Pennsylvania

Sunday

  • Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro launches presidential bid for Liberal Party ahead of October elections

  • Canada, Pope Francis begins a visit to the country

  • France, the Tour de France ends on the Champs-Élysées in Paris

  • Spain, the feast of Saint James the Apostle in Santiago de Compostela

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